WindCast · Medemblik

updated 13:54 · auto-refreshes every 10 min · NL · log in
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Stavoren
283° 13kn
gust 19 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 5 min ago
Houtribdijk
277° 15kn ▲ +5
gust 20 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 5 min ago
De Kooy
299° 10kn
gust 16 kn · 1015.7 hPa · KNMI · 5 min ago
Vlieland Island
350° 9kn
gust – kn · 1015.0 hPa · METAR · 30 min ago
IJmuiden
268° 19kn
gust 22 kn · – hPa · KNMI · 5 min ago

Wind last 6 hours — stations

windgrafiek

Model bias now — rolling 3 h

Modelbias TWSbias TWD MAE knMAE °
1AROME/ARPEGE (MF) -1.7 +11° 2.0 15°
2UKMO -2.8 -1° 2.8
3GFS (NOAA) -1.9 +1° 3.2
4ECMWF IFS -4.3 -1° 4.3
5ICON (DWD) -1.5 -3° 4.3 10°
6Harmonie (KNMI) -7.1 +5° 7.1 12°
bias stable across the window ✓ — correction reliable
bias = model − observation, median over the last 3 hours across all stations. Positive: model too strong / veered. Correction in the next panel = forecast − bias.

Coming hours — best model, corrected

Best model now: AROME/ARPEGE (MF) · bias -1.7 kn / +11°
TimeModel (raw)CorrectedGust
13:00 335° / 12 kn 324° / 14 kn 17 kn
14:00 274° / 16 kn 263° / 18 kn 22 kn
15:00 290° / 18 kn 279° / 19 kn 26 kn
16:00 287° / 16 kn 276° / 18 kn 24 kn
17:00 295° / 15 kn 284° / 17 kn 21 kn
18:00 302° / 13 kn 291° / 15 kn 20 kn

Radar & satellite

loading radar…

Run monitor

ModelLast new runLargest shift (12 h)
Harmonie (KNMI) NEW Mon 13:54 Δ 2.0 kn / 24°
AROME/ARPEGE (MF) NEW Mon 13:54 Δ 1.2 kn / 7°
ECMWF IFS no run change seen yet
GFS (NOAA) no run change seen yet
ICON (DWD) Mon 12:52 Δ 2.6 kn / 8°
UKMO Mon 12:52 Δ 1.5 kn / 12°
A large Δ means the model has substantially changed its mind versus its previous run — a reason to review the forecast.